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  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study

Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study

Brennscheidt, Gunnar

Paperback

Series: Lecture Notes in Economic and Mathematical Systems, Book 403

EconomicsMarketingGeneral Gardening

ISBN10: 3540573119
ISBN13: 9783540573111
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: Nov 29 1993
Pages: 227
Weight: 0.76
Height: 0.51 Width: 6.14 Depth: 9.21
Language: English
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels, underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of round number, dispersion, etc., are studied.

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