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Experten-Entscheidung Unter Unsicherheit: Kognitive Didaktik Und Situative Rahmung Bei Der Erhebung Von Verteilungswissen
Paperback
Series: Psychologie Des Entscheidungsverhaltens Und Des Konfliktes, Book 8
Medical ReferenceGeneral PsychologySelf-Help
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ISBN10: 3631314515
ISBN13: 9783631314517
Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der W
Published: Nov 1 1997
Pages: 334
Language: German
ISBN13: 9783631314517
Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der W
Published: Nov 1 1997
Pages: 334
Language: German
Thema dieses Bandes ist die Frage, wie bei Unsicherheit Expertenurteile erfa t, quantifiziert und für bestimmte Fragestellungen genutzt werden können. Zu vielen Problemen liefern die Fachwissenschaften heute keine exakten Lösungen. Das verfügbare Wissen ist unvollständig, unsicher und unpräzise. In solchen Fällen ist es häufig angebracht, auf Expertenurteile zurückzugreifen. Geschildert werden kognitionspsychologische Modelle und Erkenntnisse, die den Proze der Wissensgenerierung unter Unsicherheit beschreiben, sowie Prozeduren zur Erhebung von Verteilungswissen in dem Anwendungsbereich der Umwelttoxikologie. In einer experimentellen Erhebung bei Experten zum Thema Blutbleigehalte bei Kindern wird eine Erhebungsprozedur zur Unterstützung der relevanten kognitiven Prozesse erprobt und wichtige Einflu faktoren auf den Erhebungserfolg und die Güte der resultierenden Schätzungen überprüft.
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