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La riziculture de plaine et le changement climatique au Sénégal (Casamance)
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ISBN10: 6630149734
ISBN13: 9786630149739
Publisher: Editions Notre Savoir
Published: Jun 22 2026
Pages: 64
Weight: 0.22
Height: 0.15 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: French
ISBN13: 9786630149739
Publisher: Editions Notre Savoir
Published: Jun 22 2026
Pages: 64
Weight: 0.22
Height: 0.15 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: French
Le changement climatique est aujourd'hui largement reconnu comme un problème réel, urgent et véritablement mondial. Le débat porte désormais principalement sur l'ampleur des changements à venir et sur leurs répercussions sur l'agriculture. C'est pourquoi la croissance et le rendement du riz de plaine en Casamance ont été évalués dans les conditions actuelles et selon deux scénarios climatiques futurs (basés sur les scénarios RCP 4,5 et RCP 8,5). Pour mener à bien cette étude, le modèle de simulation CropSyst a été utilisé. Dans un premier temps, nous avons paramétré le modèle dans deux vallées (Djimbana et Samirong); le modèle s'est révélé capable de simuler les réalités locales. Dans un deuxième temps, les paramètres vectoriels obtenus ont été utilisés pour faire tourner le modèle selon les scénarios de la période actuelle et des périodes futures dans les deux vallées. Dans l'ensemble, les deux scénarios prévoient une baisse des rendements plus importante sous le scénario RCP 4.5 que sous le scénario RCP 8.5 par rapport à la période actuelle. Cette baisse est principalement due à d'importantes pertes d'eau et de nutriments par ruissellement de surface et drainage de l'eau du sol, causées par une intensité accrue des précipitations pendant la saison de croissance des cultures. L'effet fertilisant de la concentration accrue en CO₂ n'est pas suffisant pour compenser ces effets néfastes.
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