Sign-In
Cart
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models
Hardcover
Series: Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting, Book 5
Business GeneralGeneral Construction & Renovation
ISBN13: 9781138065055
Publisher: Routledge
Published: Sep 20 2018
Pages: 292
Weight: 2.45
Height: 1.10 Width: 7.30 Depth: 10.10
Language: English
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve.
However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are 'black boxes' and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the 'black box'. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of 'it must be right!'
Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
1 different editions
Also available
Also in
Business General
Crucial Conversations Tools for Talking When Stakes Are High, Second Edition
Switzler, Al
Grenny, Joseph
Patterson, Kerry
Paperback
The Pig and I: The Tale of Our Relationship with a Beast We Eat
Endresen, Kristoffer Hattleland
Hardcover
Inspired: Understanding Creativity: A Journey Through Art, Science, and the Soul
Richtel, Matt
Hardcover
Quiet Girls Can Run the World: Owning Your Power When You're Not the "Alpha" in the Room
Holman, Rebecca
Paperback
Climb: Taking Every Step with Conviction, Courage, and Calculated Risk to Achieve a Thriving Career and a Successful Life
Brown, Carolyn M.
Gadsden-Williams, Michelle
Paperback
The Token: Common Sense Ideas for Increasing Diversity in Your Organization
Farmer, Crystal Byrd
Paperback
Paris Chic & Trendy: Designers' Studios, Hip Boutiques, Vintage Shops
Ribes-Tiphaine, Adrienne
Paperback
The Let Them Theory: A Life-Changing Tool That Millions of People Can't Stop Talking about
Robbins, Mel
Robbins, Sawyer
Hardcover
The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think about Artificial Intelligence--Before It's Too Late
Doctorow, Cory
Paperback
The Risk Worth Taking: A Story of Breaking Free and Trading for a Life You Love
Ijeoma, Teri
Hardcover
Unreasonable Hospitality: The Remarkable Power of Giving People More Than They Expect
Guidara, Will
Hardcover
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on Managing Yourself, Updated and Expanded (Featuring How Will You Measure Your Life? by Clayton M. Christensen)
Review, Harvard Business
Drucker, Peter F.
Gallo, Amy
Paperback
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on Mental Toughness, Updated and Expanded (Featuring How to Stop Worrying about What Other People Think of You by Michael Gervais)
Review, Harvard Business
Gervais, Michael
Duckworth, Angela L.
Paperback
The Retire Sooner Method: The 5 Secrets Behind America's Happiest (and Unhappiest) Retirees
Moss, Wes
Hardcover
1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World
Ahamed, Liaquat
Hardcover
Surrender to Lead: The Counterintuitive Approach to Driving Extraordinary Results
Kriegel, Jessica
Terry, Joe
Hardcover
The Goal: 40th Anniversary Edition: A Process of Ongoing Improvement
Cox, Jeff
Goldratt, Eliyahu M.
Paperback
How to Be a Rich Old Lady: Your Guide to Easy Investing, Building Wealth, and Creating the Wild, Beautiful Life You Want
Holden, Amanda
Hardcover
Take Breaks, Work Better: Measure Impact, Not Hours, and Transform Your Profitability
Briggs, John
Paperback
Money Unlocked: How to Make It, Keep It and Multiply It: The New York Times Bestseller
Lee, John
Paperback
Crucial Conversations: Tools for Talking When Stakes Are High
Patterson, Kerry
Grenny, Joseph
McMillan, Ron
Paperback
The Freedom-Based Business Method: Reset, Systemize, and Realign Your Business to Live a Life of Harmony
Ellis, Natalie
Hardcover
The Courage to Commit: Embrace the Radical Power of Sticking with Something
Johnson, Shawn
East, Andrew
Hardcover
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on Leadership, Updated and Expanded (Featuring Begin with Trust by Frances X. Frei and Anne Morriss)
Review, Harvard Business
Edmondson, Amy C.
Ibarra, Herminia
Paperback
How We Could: The Framework to Lead Without Drama, Build Alignment, and Call Teams to Greatness
Dorr, Alex
Hardcover
The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, Deepmind, and the Quest for Superintelligence
Mallaby, Sebastian
Hardcover
Who Moved My Cheese?: An A-Mazing Way to Deal with Change in Your Work and in Your Life
Johnson, Spencer
Hardcover
The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living
Holiday, Ryan
Hanselman, Stephen
Hardcover
7-Figure Educator: Turn Your Experience as an Educator Into Income, Impact, and Freedom
Jordan-Thomas, Erica
Paperback
The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy
Stanley, Thomas J., PH. D.
Danko, William D., PH. D.
Paperback
Dummies Guide to Starting Your Own Business: Essential Steps to Launching and Scaling a Successful Small Business Venture
Press, Essywrites
Paperback
The Overthinker's Guide to Making Decisions: How to Make Decisions Without Losing Your Mind
Nguyen, Joseph
Hardcover
What the Heck Is Eos?: A Complete Guide for Employees in Companies Running on EOS
Bouwer, Tom
Wickman, Gino
Hardcover
The Coaching Habit: Say Less, Ask More, and Change the Way You Lead Forever
Stanier, Michael Bungay
Paperback
Confidence (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas
Review, Harvard Business
Kanter, Rosabeth Moss
Paperback
Stop Asking for Referrals: Build a Magnetic Business Through Intentional Care & Real Relationships
McNally, Flor de Maria
Paperback
Get Scalable: The Operating System Your Business Needs To Run and Scale Without You
Deiss, Ryan
Paperback
Never Split the Difference: Negotiating as If Your Life Depended on It
Voss, Chris
Raz, Tahl
Hardcover
I Will Teach You to Be Rich: No Guilt. No Excuses. Just a 6-Week Program That Works (Second Edition)
Sethi, Ramit
Paperback
The Mom Test: How to talk to customers & learn if your business is a good idea when everyone is lying to you
Fitzpatrick, Rob
Paperback
Building Great Businesses: Create Momentum, Overcome Setbacks, and Scale with Confidence
Becker, Scott
Hardcover
Hábitos Atómicos: Cambios Pequeños, Resultados Extraordinarios / Atomic Habits
Clear, James
Paperback
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (Pmbok(r) Guide) -- Eighth Edition and the Standard for Project Management
Project Management Institute
Paperback
Influence and Persuasion (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Cialdini, Robert B.
Review, Harvard Business
Morgan, Nick
Paperback
Mindful Listening (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Review, Harvard Business
Hougaard, Rasmus
Zenger, Jack
Paperback
A Little More Social: How Small Choices Create Unexpected Happiness, Health, and Connection
Epley, Nicholas
Hardcover
Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving in
Fisher, Roger
Ury, William
Patton, Bruce
Paperback
Expecting Better: Why the Conventional Pregnancy Wisdom Is Wrong--and What You Really Need to Know
Oster, Emily
Paperback
Take It Personal: How to Succeed by Building Relationships and Playing the Long Game
Grutman, David
Hardcover
Atlas of the Heart: Mapping Meaningful Connection and the Language of Human Experience
Brown, Brené
Hardcover
Power and Impact (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Bregman, Peter
Review, Harvard Business
Cable, Dan
Paperback
The Way of Excellence: A Guide to True Greatness and Deep Satisfaction in a Chaotic World
Stulberg, Brad
Hardcover
Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization
McKibben, Bill
Hardcover
Crucial Accountability: Proven Skills to Build Trust, Address Disappointment, and Get Results, Third Edition
Hale, Justin
Patterson, Kerry
Grenny, Joseph
Hardcover
Happiness (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Review, Harvard Business
McKee, Annie
Gilbert, Daniel
Paperback
Feedback That Works: How to Build and Deliver Your Message, Second Edition
Center for Creative Leadership
Paperback
Mindfulness (HBR Emotional Intelligence Series)
Goleman, Daniel
Review, Harvard Business
Langer, Ellen
Paperback
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on Strategy, Updated and Expanded (Featuring the Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy by Michael E. Porter)
Review, Harvard Business
Porter, Michael E.
Kim, W. Chan
Paperback
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on High Performance, Updated and Expanded (Featuring Nine Things Successful People Do Differently by Heidi Grant)
Review, Harvard Business
Grant, Heidi
Goleman, Daniel
Paperback
The Wisdom and Wealth Solution: Unlocking the Secrets of Happiness, Purpose, and Financial Security with Living360
Ansari, Feroz
Hardcover
Hbr's 10 Must Reads on Managing People, Updated and Expanded (Featuring Are You a Good Boss--Or a Great One? by Linda A. Hill and Kent Lineback)
Review, Harvard Business
Goleman, Daniel
Hill, Linda A.
Paperback
Bonfire of the Murdochs: How the Epic Fight to Control the Last Great Media Dynasty Broke a Family -- And the World
Sherman, Gabriel
Hardcover
The Algorithm: The Hypergrowth Formula That Transformed Tesla, Lululemon, General Motors, and Spacex
McNeill, Jon
Hardcover
Beyond Belief: The Science-Backed Way to Stop Limiting Yourself and Achieve Breakthrough Results
Eyal, Nir
Hardcover
The Phoenix Project: A Novel about It, Devops, and Helping Your Business Win
Spafford, George
Kim, Gene
Behr, Kevin
Paperback
Dirtbag Billionaire: How Yvon Chouinard Built Patagonia, Made a Fortune, and Gave It All Away
Gelles, David
Hardcover
The Millionaire Fastlane: Crack the Code to Wealth and Live Rich for a Lifetime!
DeMarco, M. J.
Paperback
The Obstacle Is the Way Expanded 10th Anniversary Edition: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials Into Triumph
Holiday, Ryan
Hardcover