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  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using a MESO-ETA Model-Based Index

Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using a MESO-ETA Model-Based Index

Crane, John C.

Paperback

Technology & EngineeringEnvironmental StudiesGeneral Education

ISBN10: 1249833434
ISBN13: 9781249833437
Publisher: Biblioscholar
Published: Oct 17 2012
Pages: 98
Weight: 0.33
Height: 0.20 Width: 6.14 Depth: 9.21
Language: English

Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This thesis focuses on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Surface observations from the shuttle landing facility and the coincident output of the mesoscale eta forecast model were collected for the period of 1 May to 14 Sep 1998. Variables extracted from the eta forecast model output, as well as derived variables that incorporate the eta output variables, were divided into three data sets. A univariate logistic regression with the occurrence of a thunderstorm in the surface observation (the truth) as the dependent variable, and the output/derived values from the eta model as the independent variable, discarded all but 94 of over 250 predictors that were considered important to thunderstorm occurrence.

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