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Complex Systems, Resilience and Foresight
Paperback
Series: Elements of Population Health
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Publisher: Independently Published
Pages: 278
Weight: 1.07
Height: 0.58 Width: 7.00 Depth: 10.00
Language: English
How should public health decisions be made when systems adapt, failures cascade across networks, feedback is delayed, and the future cannot be reduced to a single forecast?
Complex Systems, Resilience and Foresight develops a rigorous framework for understanding and governing public health systems under complexity, interdependence and deep uncertainty.
Moving from complex adaptive systems to anticipatory governance, the book connects systems science with the practical architecture of decision-making. It examines how boundaries, agents, networks, feedback loops, delays, adaptation, institutional power and resource constraints shape system behaviour-and how models can support decisions without being mistaken for evidence or predictive certainty.
The volume explores:
- complex adaptive systems and multiscale dynamics
- system dynamics, agent-based and network models
- systemic risk, critical dependencies and failure cascades
- resilience, recovery, adaptation and transformation
- public health intelligence and early warning signals
- horizon scanning, scenario planning and futures literacy
- robust decision-making under deep uncertainty
- adaptive policies, signposts, triggers and guardrails
- anticipatory governance, accountability and institutional learning
Throughout the book, conceptual diagrams, formal analyses and synthetic computational laboratories make assumptions, sensitivities and inferential limits visible. Reproducibility is carefully distinguished from empirical validation; scenarios from forecasts; signals from authorized action; and resilience from any single context-free score.
Rather than treating complexity as an explanation in itself, this volume shows how systems thinking can become a disciplined method for defining problems, testing assumptions, identifying vulnerabilities, comparing options and designing institutions capable of learning and adapting.
Written for public health professionals, researchers, postgraduate students, health-system leaders, policy analysts, preparedness and intelligence specialists, and decision-makers working with interconnected systems and uncertain futures.
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