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Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series

Paperback

Series: Advanced Texts in Econometrics

Economics

ISBN10: 0198774540
ISBN13: 9780198774549
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: Oct 17 1996
Pages: 242
Weight: 0.76
Height: 0.51 Width: 6.14 Depth: 9.21
Language: English
This book provides a self-contained account of periodic models for seasonally observed economic time series with stochastic trends. Two key concepts are periodic integration and periodic cointegration. Periodic integration implies that a seasonally varying differencing filter is required to remove a stochastic trend. Periodic cointegration amounts to allowing cointegration paort-term adjustment parameters to vary with the season. The emphasis is on useful econrameters and shometric models that explicitly describe seasonal variation and can reasonably be interpreted in terms of economic behaviour. The analysis considers econometric theory, Monte Carlo simulation, and forecasting, and it is illustrated with numerous empirical time series. A key feature of the proposed models is that changing seasonal fluctuations depend on the trend and business cycle fluctuations. In the case of such dependence, it is shown that seasonal adjustment leads to inappropriate results.

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Economics