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Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory: With Applications in the Environmental Sciences
Hardcover
Series: Textbooks in Statistical Science
Medical ReferenceEnvironmental StudiesProbability & Statistics
ISBN13: 9783032145635
Publisher: Springer
Published: Apr 2 2027
Language: English
This book gives an overview of rigorous risk analysis, linking it to Bayesian decision theory and demonstrating practical implementations. Risk analysis is the final step before decision-making. But what is risk, and how do we quantify the key components of risk? This book aims to provide clear definitions, formulas and algorithms.
This book is intended for researchers and decision-makers with an interest in rigorous risk analysis. Some familiarity with probability theory will make the book easier to digest, but it includes simple introductions to both probabilistic risk analysis and Bayesian decision theory. Jargon is avoided as much as possible, and all terms are defined within the book itself. Many examples of applications are included, mostly using simple data sets. The examples are from the environmental sciences, but the analytical methods are completely generic. The theory is applicable to both discrete event hazards (e.g. earthquakes) and continuous hazards (e.g. pollution or water availability).
This second edition adds new sections on uncertainty quantification, continuous risk analysis, interacting hazards, dataset quality, and the Value of Information concept in decision theory. Literature references have been updated throughout, and exercises have been added to each chapter, all with solutions.
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