Sign-In
Cart
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Hardcover
Business GeneralProbability & Statistics
Publisher Price: $32.99
ISBN13: 9781324106111
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Published: Mar 4 2025
Pages: 336
Weight: 1.18
Height: 1.16 Width: 6.38 Depth: 9.20
Language: English
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as highly likely--how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential--yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
1 different editions
Also available
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Spiegelhalter, David
Paperback
Also from
Spiegelhalter, David
Also in
Probability & Statistics
R for Data Science: Import, Tidy, Transform, Visualize, and Model Data
Grolemund, Garrett
Wickham, Hadley
Paperback
AP Statistics Premium, 2027: 9 Practice Tests + Comprehensive Review + Online Practice
Sternstein, Martin, PH. D.
Paperback
R for Data Science: Import, Tidy, Transform, Visualize, and Model Data
Cetinkaya-Rundel, Mine
Wickham, Hadley
Grolemund, Garrett
Paperback
Stat 208 Statistical Thinking: A Book for Stat 208 at Virginia Commonwealth University
Street IV, W. Scott
Durfee, Becky
Paperback
Graph Paper Composition Notebook: Quad Ruled 5x5, Grid Paper for Students in Math and Science
Wizo, Math
Paperback
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
Spiegelhalter, David
Paperback
Forecasting: Principles and Practice, the Pythonic Way
Hyndman, Rob J.
Athanasopoulos, George
Paperback
Introduction to Statistics: An Intuitive Guide for Analyzing Data and Unlocking Discoveries
Frost, Jim
Paperback
How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going
Smil, Vaclav
Paperback
The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos
Jaffe, Andrew H.
Hardcover
Mastering Claude AI: Practical Journey from First Prompts to Pro with Claude AI
Dickey, Ryan
Paperback
Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies
West, Geoffrey
Paperback
Ai-Assisted Statistics for Data Scientists: 50+ Essential Concepts Using R and Python
Bruce, Andrew
Gedeck, Peter
Bruce, Peter
Paperback
Advanced Statistics in Research: Reading, Understanding, and Writing Up Data Analysis Results
Hatcher, Larry
Paperback
Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Computing: A Scaffolding Approach
Cheng, Ran
Lee, Peter
Yu, James
Hardcover
An Introduction to Statistical Learning: With Applications in R
James, Gareth
Witten, Daniela
Hastie, Trevor
Paperback
Schaum's Outline of Probability and Statistics, 4th Edition: 897 Solved Problems + 20 Videos
Spiegel, Murray R.
Schiller, John J.
Srinivasan, R. Alu
Paperback
The Only Math Book You'll Ever Need, Revised Edition: Hundreds of Easy Solutions and Shortcuts for Mastering Everyday Numbers
Heller, Barbara R.
Kogelman, Stanley
Paperback
SQL Server 2025 Unveiled: The Ai-Ready Enterprise Database with Microsoft Fabric Integration
Ward, Bob
Paperback
How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going
Smil, Vaclav
Hardcover
Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Fans Use Mathematics in Sports, Second Edition
Winston, Wayne L.
Nestler, Scott
Pelechrinis, Konstantinos
Paperback
Building Large Language Models from Scratch: Design, Train, and Deploy Llms with Pytorch
Grigorov, Dilyan
Paperback
Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic and Ordinal Regression, and Survival Analysis
Harrell Jr, Frank E.
Paperback
Schaum's Outline of Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes, Fourth Edition
Hsu, Hwei P.
Paperback
Quantum Computing and Quantum Machine Learning for Engineers and Developers
Van Griensven Thé, Jesse
Rosas-Bustos, Jose
Fraser, Roydon Andrew
Hardcover
Making ChatGPT Work for You: Getting the Most Out of Generative AI as a Non-Techie
Evelyn, Lydia
Paperback
Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions
Downey, Allen B.
Paperback
The End of Average: Unlocking Our Potential by Embracing What Makes Us Different
Rose, Todd
Paperback
Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written: How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
Shapira, Haim
Hardcover
The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
Domingos, Pedro
Paperback
Challenging Mathematical Problems with Elementary Solutions, Vol. I: Volume 1
Yaglom, I. M.
Yaglom, A. M.
Paperback
Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won
Wertheim, L. Jon
Moskowitz, Tobias
Paperback
Databricks Data Intelligence Platform: Unlocking the Genai Revolution
Yip, Jason
Gupta, Nikhil
Paperback
Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions
Downey, Allen B.
Hardcover
Large Language Models: A Deep Dive: Bridging Theory and Practice
Somers, Garrett
Kamath, Uday
Keenan, Kevin
Hardcover
Building Generative AI Agents: Using Langgraph, Autogen, and Crewai
Taulli, Tom
Deshmukh, Gaurav
Paperback
Time Series Analysis and Its Applications: With R Examples
Stoffer, David S.
Shumway, Robert H.
Hardcover
AI for Robotics: Toward Embodied and General Intelligence in the Physical World
Imran, Alishba
Gopalakrishnan, Keerthana
Paperback
Machine Learning Q and AI: 30 Essential Questions and Answers on Machine Learning and AI
Raschka, Sebastian
Paperback
Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python - Second Edition: Industry-ready machine learning and deep learning time series analysis with PyTorch and p
Joseph, Manu
Tackes, Jeffrey
Paperback
Challenging Mathematical Problems with Elementary Solutions, Vol. II: Volume 2
Yaglom, I. M.
Yaglom, A. M.
Paperback
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of C
McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch
Paperback
Learning Statistics with Jamovi: A Tutorial for Beginners in Statistical Analysis
Navarro, Danielle
Foxcroft, David
Paperback
An Introduction to Statistical Learning: With Applications in Python
Hastie, Trevor
James, Gareth
Witten, Daniela
Hardcover
Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Computing: A Scaffolding Approach
Cheng, Ran
Lee, Peter
Yu, James
Paperback
The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Volume 2: Spatial Measurements and Statistics
Mitchell, Andy
Griffin, Lauren Scott
Paperback
The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition
Hastie, Trevor
Tibshirani, Robert
Friedman, Jerome
Hardcover
Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin
Adam, John a.
Weinstein, Lawrence
Paperback
Deep Learning in Computational Mechanics: An Introductory Course
Weeger, Oliver
Jokeit, Moritz
Herrmann, Leon
Hardcover
Unlocking Dbt: Design and Deploy Transformations in Your Cloud Data Warehouse
Cyr, Cameron
Dorsey, Dustin
Paperback
ACCUPLACER Math Prep: ACCUPLACER Math Test Study Guide with Two Practice Tests [Includes Detailed Answer Explanations]
Tpb Publishing
Paperback
High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science
Vershynin, Roman
Hardcover
An Introduction to Statistical Learning: With Applications in Python
Hastie, Trevor
James, Gareth
Witten, Daniela
Paperback
Large Language Model Recipes: A Hands-On Guide to Fine-Tuning, Optimization, Deployment, and Real-World Applications
Bolla, Bharath Kumar
Subbaiah, Kalpa
Kaata, Sashi Kiran
Paperback
Prompt Engineering for Everyone: A Self-Taught, Human-Centered Approach to AI Programming
Tavakoli, Hamid
Paperback
Bayesian Analysis with Python - Third Edition: A practical guide to probabilistic modeling
Martin, Osvaldo
Paperback
Introduction to Statistics: An Intuitive Guide for Analyzing Data and Unlocking Discoveries
Frost, Jim
Hardcover
The Design Inference: Eliminating Chance through Small Probabilities
Dembski, William A.
Ewert, Winston
Hardcover
Observability for Large Language Models: Site Reliability and Chaos Engineering for AI at Scale
Sharma, Ankush
Paperback
Large Language Models: From Theory to Production
Vanegas, Esteban
Noguer I. Alonso, Miquel
Pacheco Aznar, David
Paperback
Practical Generative Ai: From Concept to Deployment: Building and Deploying Ethical AI-Powered Solutions
McKeone, James
Singh, Pramod
Paperback
Enterprise Guide for Implementing Generative AI and Agentic AI: A Practical Guide to Developing, Deploying, and Operationalizing Ai-Driven Application
Sinha, Vikas
Edward, Shakuntala Gupta
Bhattacharya, Rahul
Paperback
Student's Solutions Guide for Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes
Pishro-Nik, Hossein
Paperback
R in Action, Third Edition: Data Analysis and Graphics with R and Tidyverse
Kabacoff, Robert I.
Paperback
Exercises and Projects for The Little SAS Book, Sixth Edition
Delwiche, Lora D.
Slaughter, Susan J.
Ottesen, Rebecca A.
Paperback
Designing Human-Centric AI Experiences: Applied UX Design for Artificial Intelligence
Kore, Akshay
Paperback
The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
Hand, David J.
Paperback
Making Statistics Work: Information Theory and Bayesian Inference
Scharfenaker, Ellis
Foley, Duncan
Paperback