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Probabilidade de incumprimento e margens lÃquidas de juros bancárias
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ISBN10: 6208475988
ISBN13: 9786208475987
Publisher: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
Published: Aug 29 2025
Pages: 100
Weight: 0.32
Height: 0.24 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Portuguese
ISBN13: 9786208475987
Publisher: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
Published: Aug 29 2025
Pages: 100
Weight: 0.32
Height: 0.24 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Portuguese
Apesar de o risco de crédito ser comprovadamente um dos determinantes mais importantes da margem lÃquida de juros (NIM), ele nunca foi representado pela probabilidade de incumprimento nos trabalhos anteriores. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é desenvolver um modelo para estimativas de PD e incorporar essa variável na regressão com NIM como variável dependente. Este artigo examina o impacto da PD na NIM de 35 bancos austrÃacos, cobrindo um perÃodo de catorze anos, de 1999 a 2013. A análise estatÃstica sugere que a PD pode ser estimada utilizando as demonstrações financeiras dos bancos. Os rácios que caracterizam a liquidez, os ativos, o capital e a rentabilidade são utilizados como variáveis explicativas no modelo de regressão. Além disso, os nossos resultados fornecem uma boa evidência de que a PD tem uma influência significativa na NIM. O coeficiente de inclinação é negativo quando a PD é utilizada como única variável explicativa para a NIM, no entanto, o sinal é invertido quando outros fatores especÃficos do banco e macroeconómicos são levados em consideração. As variáveis de capital próprio e eficiência operacional, bem como a volatilidade das taxas de juro, são consideradas significativas. Ao mesmo tempo, o crescimento do PIB e a taxa de inflação são irrelevantes para a estimativa da NIM na nossa pesquisa.
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