Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley door pickup 10am - 7pm 3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611

  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models

Modelling and forecasting monthly petroleum prices of Ghana using subset ARIMA models

Okyere, Francis

Paperback

Business GeneralEconomics

ISBN10: 3656483655
ISBN13: 9783656483656
Publisher: Grin Verlag
Published: Sep 11 2013
Pages: 110
Weight: 0.34
Height: 0.26 Width: 5.83 Depth: 8.27
Language: English
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: none, language: English, abstract: The study is an attempt to build a univariate Time Series Model to forecast monthly petroleum prices for 2010/2011, from January 1990 to September 2010, since national petroleum agency (NPA) is failing to plan for fluctuation of petroleum prices. The data was source from the website of Bank of Ghana. The study employs Box-Jenkins methodology of building Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to achieve various objectives. Different selected models were tested by Residual plots of Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation and Ljung Box Q statistic to ensure adequacy of results. The results reveal that demand and supply, crudel oil prices, gasoline, natural disasters and government regulations are some of factors that can influence fuel prices and ARIMA(1,1,5)×(1,0,1)11 is the best model for forecast. The future values expose that during the months to come; petroleum prices are going to experience an insignificant increase. In light of the forecast, I know Ghana will ascertain a healthy state of economy.

Also in

Economics

View All