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Systematische Prognosefehler in Der Unternehmensplanung: Eine Ökonomisch-Psychologische Analyse
Paperback
Series: Schriften Des Center for Controlling & Management (CCM), Book 47
ISBN13: 9783834929853
Publisher: Springer Gabler
Published: Mar 14 2013
Pages: 242
Weight: 0.71
Height: 0.56 Width: 5.83 Depth: 8.27
Language: German
Übermä iger Optimismus bei der Schätzung von Absatzmengen sowie andere systematische Prognosefehler sind ein häufiges Phänomen der Unternehmensplanung mit einem mehrjährigen Zeithorizont. Guido Pieroth entwickelt ein ökonomisch- psychologisches Modell des Prognoseverhaltens zur Erklärung der Ursachen solcher Prognosefehler. Die ökonomische Theorie unter der Annahme perfekter Prognosefähigkeiten dient dabei als Kern. Das resultierende Teilmodell kann die Wirkungen von Situationsbedingungen wie Planentstehungskontrollen, Erfolgskontrollen, Ressourcenpräferenz und Identifikation mit dem Unternehmenserfolg erklären. In einem zweiten Schritt lockert der Autor die Annahme perfekter Prognosefähigkeiten auf und berücksichtigt kognitive Begrenzungen auf der Basis der Theorie der kognitiven Dissonanz.
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