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对话中南海
Paperback
Series: 海外学人作家文集, Book 5
General Asian HistoryGeneral Parenting
Publisher: Not Avail
Published: May 29 2026
Pages: 322
Weight: 0.95
Height: 0.72 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Chinese
中国可能的三个前途
最好的前途，是党主立宪，有序地走向民主。我并不认为这是中国唯一的路。非常可能，中共不会选择这条路。几百代帝王都绕不出历史怪圈，凭什么中共就那么幸运？但我相信这是一条代价最小、阻力最小的路。党主立宪的主张，习近平看不看得到，先打个对折；看到之后能不能接受，再打个对折；就算真接受，能不能搞成，还有个对折--顶多十二点五个百分点的可能性。
第二个前途是有序地解体。东欧各国、苏联十几个加盟共和国解体，最终走的都是这条路。有序解体的结果是：共产党下台，经济滑坡，国家分裂。总之，重新洗牌，一切打回原形。它的好处是军队稳定，一半以上的新政府官员来自旧政权，没有大规模的政治清算。
第三个前途是无序崩溃。这是最坏的一条路，也是历代王朝的覆辙。1924年，前清遗老郑孝胥提出三共论：先共和，后共产，最后共管。这里所谓共管，指的是中国崩溃，被国际社会共管。1911年共和灭大清，1949年共产灭共和，下一步就是共管。有趣的是，多年以后，我的三位朋友--王力雄、李劼、芦笛--各写了一部政治预言小说，都结束于同一个场景：中国在一场核战争中崩溃，被国际社会共管。他们写小说时互不认识，也没有读过三共论。
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