Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley door pickup 10am - 7pm 3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611

  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Behavioral Decision Theory

Behavioral Decision Theory

Poulton, E. C.

Hardcover

General MathematicsProbability & Statistics

ISBN10: 0521443687
ISBN13: 9780521443685
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: Sep 30 1994
Pages: 336
Weight: 1.41
Height: 0.84 Width: 6.43 Depth: 9.09
Language: English
This book discusses the well-known fallacies of behavioral decision theory. It shows that while an investigator is studying a fallacy, he or she may introduce without realizing it, one of the simple biases that are found in quantifying judgments. The work covers such fallacies as the apparent overconfidence that people show when they judge the probability of correctness of their answers to two-choice general knowledge questions using a one-sided rating scale; the apparent overconfidence in setting uncertainty bounds on unknown quantities when using the fractile method; the interactions between hindsight and memory; the belief that small samples are as reliable and as representative as are large samples; the conjunction fallacy for Linda and Bill; the causal conjunction fallacy; the regression fallacy in prediction; the neglect of the base rate in the Cab problem, in predicting professions, and in the Medical Diagnosis problem; the availability and simulation fallacies; the anchoring and adjustment biases; Prospect theory; and bias by frames. The aim of this book is to help readers to learn about the fallacies and to avoid them.

Also in

Probability & Statistics

View All