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The Age of Absorption: How the Computer Revolution Is Finally Reshaping Debt, Inflation and Markets
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Publisher: Pierre-Olivier Beffy
Pages: 168
Weight: 0.74
Height: 0.44 Width: 6.14 Depth: 9.21
Language: English
The Age of Absorption argues that we are not entering the age of AI. We are entering the period in which the computer revolution is finally being absorbed across the economy.
For more than fifty years, digital technologies have transformed how we compute, communicate and organise information. Yet their full macroeconomic consequences have remained surprisingly limited. Productivity gains have disappointed, income growth has been uneven, debt has risen and, for much of this period, inflation remained subdued.
Pierre-Olivier Beffy argues that this is now beginning to change.
In this book, he develops a long-term framework linking innovation, debt, inflation and market regimes. Drawing on the history of capitalism, he identifies four broad regimes in the long economic cycle: Golden Age, stagflation, debt-spansion and stagnation.
Technological revolutions evolve across this cycle, but follow their own trajectory. A new technology can be invented and progressively installed long before its full macroeconomic effects are felt. The decisive shift comes when, after a long period of installation, the technology begins to be absorbed at scale - embedded not only in new products, but in infrastructure, institutions, organisations and everyday economic life. As stagnation gives way to a new Golden Age, this process of absorption becomes increasingly powerful across the economy.
The book examines the forces that could accompany this transition: the diffusion of artificial intelligence, the return of the strategic state and industrial policy, rising public debt, changing inflation dynamics and the prospect of financial repression and persistently low real interest rates.
It then explores what such a regime could mean for investors - from the future of bonds and equities to the role of commodities and real assets - and how the absorption of a technological revolution can reshape both the macroeconomic environment and the investment landscape.
Written from the perspective of an investor, but for a broader audience, The Age of Absorption offers a framework for understanding where we are in the economic cycle, what may come next, and what it could mean for markets.
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