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Errores frecuentes en Dinámica de Sistemas: GuÃa para construir modelos de simulación, diagramas causales, diagramas de flujos (Diagramas de ... sin f
Paperback
Series: Modelos de Simulación, Book 2019
CalculusGeneral MathematicsGeneral Science
Publisher: Independently Published
Published: Jun 30 2020
Pages: 150
Weight: 0.46
Height: 0.32 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Spanish
ATENCION: Los gastos de envÃo son diferentes en amazon.es, amazon.com y amazon.com.mx, revise su mejor opción.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Recopilación aleccionadora de los errores más frecuentes que el experto y el novel suelen cometer al construir un modelo de simulación basado en Dinámica de Sistemas. Con frecuencia estos errores hacer perder horas de trabajo y paciencia a la persona que construye el modelo, este libro quiere ayudar al lector a aprender de la múltiple experiencia ajena que existe en este campo.1. Errores en Dinámica de Sistemas
1.1. Proceso de creación del modelo
1.2. Identificación y prevención de errores
1.3. Mejorar la fiabilidad y la facilidad de uso
2. Diagramas Causales
2.1. No seguir las normas de estilo
2.2. Confundir correlación con causalidad
2.3. Complicación excesiva del diagrama
2.4. Nombres de variables ambiguos
2.5. Bucles vs. Cadenas causales
2.6. Asignar polaridades (+ o -) incorrectas
2.7. No incluir los retrasos
2.8. Variable que depende de muchas
2.9. Variables en sentido negativo
2.10. Variables que no influyen en otras
2.11. Variables con signos
3. Diagramas de niveles y flujos
3.1. No seguir las norma de estilo
3.2. Tipo de variable incorrecto
3.3. Dirección de flujo incorrecta
3.4. Incoherencia de unidades
3.5. No conectar flujos con niveles
3.6. Flujos mal conectados
3.7. Niveles que dependen de auxiliares
3.8. Variables duplicadas
3.9. Ignorar los valores lÃmite del sistema
3.10. Flechas con signos
3.11. Usar mayúsculas para todo
3.12. Nubes que dependen de variables
3.13. Variables que dependen de dos tablas
3.14. Resultados fÃsicamente imposibles
3.15. Variable que depende de sà misma
3.16. Ecuaciones simultáneas
3.17. Errores muy evidentes
4. Ecuaciones
4.1. Variables poco definidas
4.2. Falta de coherencia dimensional
4.3. Confundir constantes con variables
4.4. Simplificación excesiva de ecuaciones
4.5. No incluir demoras y no linealidades
4.6. Error en las condiciones iniciales
5. Simulación
5.1. Uso de un intervalo de tiempo incorrecto
5.2. No realizar pruebas de sensibilidad
5.3. Hipótesis poco claras o mal documentadas
5.4. Validación y verificación inadecuadas
5.5. Ignorar condiciones extremas
5.6. Simulación con parámetros no calibrados
6. Resultados
6.1. Exceso de confianza en el modelo
6.2. Mala interpretación de los bucles
6.3. Ignorar los horizontes temporales
6.4. Centrarse en variables aisladas
6.5. No percibir los lÃmites del crecimiento
6.6. Variables blandas y factores intangibles
7. Comunicación
7.1. Uso excesivo de jerga
7.2. Mala exposición de los resultados
7.3. No explicar bien las consecuencias
7.4. Ignorar las necesidades del usuario
7.5. Exagerar la importancia de la simulación
8. Documentación
8.1. Falta de transparencia
8.2. Descontrol de las versiones del modelo
8.3. Hipótesis o fuentes de datos poco claras
El autor
Juan Martin Garcia, reconocido experto en Dinámica de Sistemas y System Thinking, Doctor Ingeniero Industrial (España) y Diploma de Postgrado en Business Dynamics en la Sloan School of Management del Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA). Ha sido profesor de modelos de simulación de construcción durante veinte años en varias universidades y ahora enseña los cursos en lÃnea de Vensim en http: //vensim.com/vensim-online-courses/
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