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Teoria e exercícios práticos de Dinâmica de Sistemas
Paperback
Series: Vensim Formação, Book 2019
Business GeneralGeneral Computers
ISBN13: 9781718175389
Publisher: Independently Published
Published: Aug 16 2018
Pages: 304
Weight: 1.56
Height: 0.64 Width: 8.50 Depth: 11.00
Language: Portuguese
A aprendizagem da Dinâmica de Sistemas contribui para uma melhor gestão das empresas, o melhor aproveitamento dos recursos naturais e a resolução de conflitos saciáis.
Actualmente podemos falar de três grandes áreas de aplicação da Dinâmica de Sistemas, que são a área da administração de instituições públicas ou privadas, a área ambiental e a área mais abrangente do desenvolvimento sustentável.
Por razões históricas é natural que a maioria das aplicações ainda seja na área da administração, uma vez que a Dinâmica de Sistemas nasceu para solucionar problemas empresariais.
A Dinâmica de Sistema sé uma técnica para construir modelos de simulação, baseada no estudo das relações entre as diversas partes do sistema, que serve para tomar decisões em ambientes complexos.
A Dinâmica de Sistemas baseia-se na utilização de dois tipos de diagramas - o Diagrama Causal e o Diagrama de Forrester - que têm as suas raízes na Teoria Geral de Sistemas e são, de fato, como a cara e coroa da mesma moeda. O propósito da Dinâmica de Sistemas não é realizar previsões sobre o comportamento futuro de ambientes que não podemos modificar, como sucede com os modelos de simulação meteorológica, mas sim habilitar-nos a tomar decisões que nos ajudem a solucionar um problema.
Um Diagrama Causal é a representação gráfica dos elementos que influenciam um problema e das suas inter-relações. Este diagrama permite-nos identificar os feedbacks que podem dar estabilidade ao sistema (ciclos de retroação negativos), bem como os outros (ciclos de retroação positivos), que podem ser a alavanca que nos permitirá transformá-lo duma forma radical e eficiente. O Diagrama Causal é em geral uma etapa prévia à construção dum Diagrama de Forrester.
O Diagrama de Forrester serve para simular o modelo num computador e assim comprovar a coerência das nossas hipóteses, analisar a coerência do sistema e por fim simular diferentes políticas, por forma a que os resultados apresentados pelos modelos nos ajudem a resolver o problema em estudo.
Os Diagramas Causais também são úteis no final do processo de simulação, para explicar com clareza as nossas conclusões a quem não conheça nada desta ferramenta. Em resumo, o Diagrama Causal tem uma dupla função: no princípio do estudo, serve para organizar os elementos que inflem no problema; no final do estudo, serve para explicar as conclusões e recomendações ao nosso cliente.
INDICE
1. DINÂMICA DE SISTEMAS
2. CONSTRUÇÃO DE UM MODELO
3. EXERCICIOS
Area Ambiental
3.1. Dinàmica populacional
3.2. Ecología de uma reserva natural
3.3. Efeitos da agricultura intensiva
3.4. A pesca do camarão em Campeche
3.5. Coelhos e raposas
3.6. A criação de porcos
3.7. Estudo de impacto ambiental
3.8. Os reservatórios de Angkor
Área Empresarial
3.9. Administração dinâmica de estoques
3.10. Emissôes de CO2
3.11. Como producir mais e melhor
3.12. Avarías
3.13. Gerenciamento dinâmico de um projeto
3.14. Um modelo de empresa inovadora
3.15. Controle de qualidade
3.16. Impacto dos planos de negócio
Área Social
3.17. Enchendo um copo
3.18. Estudo de uma catástrofe
3.19. O jovem ambicioso
3.20. Desenvolvimento de uma epidemia
3.21. Dinâmica dos dois relógios
3.22. O efeito borboleta
3.23. Análise do turismo de inverno
Área Física
3.24. Dinâmica de um depósito
3.25. Estudo dos movimentos oscilatórios
3.26. Projeto de um reator químico
3.27. A lâmpada de Darder
3.28. O número de ouro
3.29. Ingestão de tóxicos
Sem dúvida, o melhor livro para aprender Dinâmica de Sistemas
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