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Avaliação do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo
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ISBN10: 6208044464
ISBN13: 9786208044466
Publisher: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
Published: Sep 4 2024
Pages: 56
Weight: 0.21
Height: 0.13 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Portuguese
ISBN13: 9786208044466
Publisher: Edicoes Nosso Conhecimento
Published: Sep 4 2024
Pages: 56
Weight: 0.21
Height: 0.13 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: Portuguese
Foi efectuada uma análise para avaliar o desempenho das previsões sub-sazonais a sazonais (S2S) do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo (ECMWF) sobre o sul da Nigéria, com o objetivo de calcular a capacidade de medir a qualidade das previsões durante o período de 1995 a 2015 e durante os anos de El Niño e La Niña. A análise dos resultados revelou enviesamentos negativos em prazos de uma a quatro semanas. Os desvios e o RMSE aumentaram com o tempo de execução, enquanto os valores de ACC foram melhores no tempo de execução de uma semana e piores no tempo de execução de quatro semanas. Nos prazos de 2 a 4 semanas, o desvio seco é particularmente forte entre o final de junho e julho. Este facto sugere uma dificuldade na previsão com precipitação dispersa durante a Monção da África Ocidental (WAM), quando a Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ITCZ), também designada ITD, se encontra a norte da região. A previsão durante os anos de El Nino também teve melhor desempenho do que nos anos de La Nina, e a previsão durante os anos de La Nina é pior durante o período da Pequena Estação Seca (LDS) em julho e agosto na área de estudo. Este facto pode estar associado à teleconexão entre os eventos ENSO e a precipitação na área de estudo.
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