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Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistic

Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistic

Paperback

Series: Springerbriefs in Environmental Science

Medical ReferenceEnvironmental Studies

ISBN10: 3319038222
ISBN13: 9783319038223
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: Jan 8 2014
Pages: 58
Weight: 0.20
Height: 0.20 Width: 5.90 Depth: 8.90
Language: English
This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study.

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Environmental Studies