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  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis

Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis

Pisarenko, V.
Rodkin, M.

Paperback

Series: Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Book 30

General MathematicsGeneral SociologyProbability & Statistics

ISBN10: 9400732856
ISBN13: 9789400732858
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: Oct 13 2012
Pages: 190
Weight: 0.65
Height: 0.44 Width: 6.14 Depth: 9.21
Language: English

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk - Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value - is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions.

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