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From Runs to Wins
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ISBN10: 6630466950
ISBN13: 9786630466959
Publisher: Scholars' Press
Published: Sep 18 2026
Pages: 64
Weight: 0.22
Height: 0.15 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: English
ISBN13: 9786630466959
Publisher: Scholars' Press
Published: Sep 18 2026
Pages: 64
Weight: 0.22
Height: 0.15 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: English
This book analyzes and evaluates an alternative logistic model to the traditional Pythagorean expectation method for converting runs into wins in Major League Baseball (MLB). Based on official MLB data for the 2000-2019 period as a test set and a deferred validation period from 2021 to 2025, the author examines the hypothesis that a pure logistic model-inspired by the law of minority attrition and psephological tools-offers a more solid theoretical and empirical approximation.Although the formulation provides a logical foundation and an endogenous variable exponent per team and season, the results demonstrate that its predictive accuracy is practically identical to that of the adjusted Pythagorean model with an exponent of 1.83 (reaching very high coefficients of determination), evidencing a high correlation between both procedures.
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