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  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Tabeau, E.
Heathcote, Christopher
Van Den Berg Jeths, Anneke

Hardcover

Series: European Studies of Population, Book 9

Medical ReferenceGeneral SociologyProbability & Statistics

ISBN10: 0792368339
ISBN13: 9780792368335
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: Feb 28 2001
Pages: 306
Weight: 1.60
Height: 0.97 Width: 6.20 Depth: 9.68
Language: English
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

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