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  • Open Daily: 10am - 10pm
    Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm

    3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
    612-822-4611

Open Daily: 10am - 10pm | Alley-side Pickup: 10am - 7pm
3038 Hennepin Ave Minneapolis, MN
612-822-4611
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Nowcasting Gdp and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Nowcasting Gdp and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

Giannone, Domenico
United States Federal Reserve Board
Et Al

Paperback

General Political Science

ISBN10: 1288711433
ISBN13: 9781288711437
Publisher: Bibliogov
Published: Feb 6 2013
Pages: 46
Weight: 0.22
Height: 0.10 Width: 7.44 Depth: 9.69
Language: English
This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing news on the basis of an evolving conditioning information set. The marginal contribution is then split into what is due to timeliness of information and what is due to economic content. We find that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables, and this effect is larger than that of the Employment Report. When we control for timeliness of the releases, the effect of hard data becomes sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation, while GDP is affected only by real variables and interest rates.

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