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Intelligence démographique et dynamique sécuritaire au Sahel: Théories et théorisation des liens
Paperback
Series: Diplomatie Et Stratégie
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ISBN10: 2336626675
ISBN13: 9782336626673
Publisher: Editions L'Harmattan
Pages: 190
Weight: 0.48
Height: 0.40 Width: 5.32 Depth: 8.47
Language: French
ISBN13: 9782336626673
Publisher: Editions L'Harmattan
Pages: 190
Weight: 0.48
Height: 0.40 Width: 5.32 Depth: 8.47
Language: French
Cette recherche propose une analyse systémique des interactions entre dynamiques démographiques et enjeux sécuritaires dans les dix pays de la région politique du Sahel. Face à une croissance démographique annuelle de 3 % et une population très jeune, dont 75 % de moins de 35 ans, projetée à 690 millions en 2050, combinées à un chômage structurel de 35 % et une insécurité endémique, l'étude démontre que les réponses sécuritaires centrées sur le contre-terrorisme négligent les racines structurelles des conflits.
L'ouvrage introduit le concept d' intelligence démographique, analyse systémique et prospective des données populationnelles, comme outil essentiel pour anticiper les risques et orienter les politiques publiques. Il opère une rupture épistémologique majeure en démontrant l'inopérance de la théorie classique du dividende démographique en contexte d'insécurité chronique et, pour combler cette lacune, théorise deux modèles originaux que sont le dividende démographique sécurisé et la spirale démographique-sécuritaire qui conceptualise l'interdépendance auto-renforçante entre croissance démographique, pression sur les ressources, conflits et effondrement des services publics, à l'aide d'outils prospectifs ancrés dans l'intelligence démographique afin d'intégrer l'impact sécuritaire dans les stratégies d'investissement.
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