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Essai de prospective démographique
Paperback
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ISBN10: 2213615969
ISBN13: 9782213615967
Publisher: Fayard
Published: Feb 21 2022
Pages: 280
Weight: 0.69
Height: 0.59 Width: 5.32 Depth: 8.47
Language: French
ISBN13: 9782213615967
Publisher: Fayard
Published: Feb 21 2022
Pages: 280
Weight: 0.69
Height: 0.59 Width: 5.32 Depth: 8.47
Language: French
Le difficile et douloureux débat en cours sur le financement des retraites le montre bien: les effets des phénomènes démographiques sont à la fois inévitables et irréversibles. De même que le fléchissement de la natalité dès le début des années 1960 n?a guère été remarqué à l?époque hors des milieux spécialisés, sinon par Alfred Sauvy, Michel Debré, Peter Mac Donald et déjà Pierre Chaunu, de même il est incontestable, chiffres de l?ONU à l?appui, qu?aujourd?hui la planète tout entière ou presque a cessé de remplacer la génération les femmes en âge de procréer ne sont plus assez nombreuses; dans les décennies à venir, la population mondiale va certes continuer à augmenter, mais ensuite elle va nécessairement décroître. Dans le tiers monde, dans les pays occidentaux, notamment en Europe (sauf peut-être en France et chez un ou deux de ses voisins), un malthusianisme primaire a presque partout triomphé. Comment des actifs de moins en moins nombreux pourront-ils faire vivre des inactifs de plus en plus nombreux ?
L?humanité se trouve engagée dans un processus qu?elle n?a jamais connu. Elle doit le savoir, c?est la moindre des choses. Peut-être n?est-il pas encore tout à fait trop tard? Pierre Chaunu, membre de l?Académie des sciences morales et politiques, est professeur émérite à l?université de Paris-IV-Sorbonne; Jacques Renard, docteur en histoire, est ingénieur d?études à l?université de Paris-IV-Sorbonne.
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