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An N Enquiry Into Linear Conflict Models
Paperback
General Political ScienceInternational Relations
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ISBN10: 384877156X
ISBN13: 9783848771561
Publisher: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft
Published: May 27 2021
Pages: 60
Weight: 11.85
Language: English
ISBN13: 9783848771561
Publisher: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft
Published: May 27 2021
Pages: 60
Weight: 11.85
Language: English
This monograph generalises, and extends, the classic dynamic models in conflict analysis (Lanchester 1916, Richardson 1919, Boulding 1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peacekeeping. Incrementalist as well as stochastic versions of the model are reviewed. These extensions allow for a rich variety of patterns of dynamic conflict. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that linear dynamic models capture selected phases of the conflict quite well, offering a potential taxonomy for conflict dynamics. We also discuss a method for introducing a modicum of (bounded) rationality into models from this tradition.
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