Fooled by Randomness
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Hardcover ISBN: 1400067936
The author of The Black Swan argues that randomness and probability have a profound influence on human life, as well as the consistent inability of humans to recognize that role, and explains how to differentiate between randomness in general and the financial markets in particular. 15,000 first printing.
Forex Shockwave Analysis
1st Edition Hardcover ISBN: 0071498141
More than $2 trillion is traded in the foreign exchange every day, and many experts believe this figure will double in the next five years. Fortunately for spot currency traders, the high-volume periods in this market are predictably moved by information released from government and informational agencies, typically on Wednesdays and Fridays at 8:30 a.m. Knowing this gives the Forex trader tremendous analytical advantage, and in Forex Shockwave Analysis, veteran online spot currency trader James Bickford offers reliable techniques and know-how to capitalize on the violent disruptions that happen at these times. When a severe breakout up or down occurs in an otherwise well-behaved time series, it's called a shockwave, and Forex Shockwave Analysis offers unprecedented focus on identifying, analyzing, and categorizing this unique pattern in the foreign exchange market. It not only helps independent investors isolate and recognize recurring shockwave personality traits, but it also gives insight into the reactive phase immediately following the shockwave. Fundamental analysis is covered to provide complete coverage, but playing this market's action can be most highly profitable when the streaming data available today is used to reveal critical properties and characteristics about the underlying currency pair. This book equips you with the four most important methods of technical analysis: - Pattern recognition - Econometric models - Crossover trading systems - Wave theory Forex Shockwave Analysis is packed with practical information for mastering shockwave trading, including a refined minimum reversal algorithm that converts raw security data (OHLC quotes) to swing data, numerous charts and diagnoses based on activity, range, and interaction, as well as fifteen case studies demonstrating how covered material works in the real world. This highly visual book is also outstandingly designed to serve as a computer-side reference that equips you with eleven appendices filled with all the tools you need to gain a distinct advantage while working online in your currency trading platform. Shockwaves occur over the course of a few minutes, and with Forex Shockwave Analysis, you can effectively profit off them for a lifetime.
Free Cash Flow
Seeing Through the Accounting Fog Machine to Find Great Stocks
Hardcover ISBN: 0470391758
The purpose of this book is to explain Free Cash Flow and how to use it to increase investor return. The author explains the differences between Free Cash Flow and GAAP earnings and lays out the disadvantages of GAAP EPS as well as the advantages of Free Cash Flow. After taking the reader step-by-step through the author's Free Cash Flow statement, the book illustrates with formulas how each of the four deployments of Free Cash Flow can enhance or diminish shareholder return. The book applies the conceptual building blocks of Free Cash Flow and investor return to an actual company: McDonald's. The reader is taken line-by-line through the author's investor return spreadsheet model: (1) three years of McDonald's historical financial statements are modeled; (2) a one-year projection of McDonald's Free Cash Flow and investor return is modeled. Five other restaurant companies are compared to McDonald's and each other using both Free Cash Flow and GAAP metrics.
Full of Bull
Unscramble Wall Street Doubletalk to Protect and Build Your Portfolio
Paperback ISBN: 013702312x
SUPERANNO There's what Wall Street tells you to do. Then, there's what Wall Street insiders are doing themselves--and that's something else altogether! Today, it's more important than ever to decipher the Wall Street analysts' insider code, and understand what they're really telling their biggest institutional investors. In the completely updated Full of Bull, Updated Edition, Stephen McClellan helps you level the playing field and start earning profits again. McClellan knows exactly how the game is played: for decades, he was one of the Street's leading analysts. Now, he reveals the secrets and deceptions Wall Street researchers are utilizing right now. Original.
Full View Integrated Technical Analysis
A Systematic Approach to Active Stock Market Investing
Hardcover ISBN: 0470825790
A fresh approach to technical analysis utilizing a full view (multi-time frame) integrated analytical system. Has the bear market ended? Is the rebound lasting? Everybody wants an answer but nobody can provide one with a good degree of confidence. While fundamental analysis is notoriously weak when it comes to market timing decisions and price target forecasts, technical analysis is equally timid in providing any concrete answers to the above fundamentally important questions for market participants. No existing system has produced a firm answer with a respectable degree of conviction. This book will present a system to answer those questions with a high degree of confidence. Xin Xie is the Director for Institute of International Trade and Investment at the Upper Yangtze River Economic Research Center, Chongqing University of Business and Technology and PRC Ministry of Education. He has a PhD in Economics from Columbia University in New York and a Master of Arts Degree in Statistics at Zhongnan University of Finance in China. He has extensive experiences in banking and investment industries as Senior Economists and Strategists in Bank of America and UBS AG.
Fundamental Analysis for Dummies
2nd Edition Paperback ISBN: 111926359x
Determine the strength of any business with fundamental analysis Have you ever wondered the key to multibillionaire Warren Buffet's five-decade run as the most successful investor in history? The answer is simple: fundamental analysis. In this easy-to-understand, practical, and savvy guide, you'll discover how it helps you assess a business' overall financial performance by using historical and present data to forecast its future monetary value
Gaming the Market
Applying Game Theory to Create Winning Trading Strategies
Hardcover ISBN: 0471168130
Gaming the Market: Applying Game Theory to Create Winning Trading Strategies is the first book to show investors how game theory is applicable to decisions about buying and selling stocks, bonds, mutual funds, futures, and options. As a practical trading guide, Gaming the Market will help investors master this revolutionary approach, and employ it to their advantage. Although game theory has been studied since the 1940s, it has only recently been applied to the world of finance. Game theory champions garnered the 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics, and, today, this theory is used to analyze everything from the baseball strike to FCC auctions. Increasingly, game theory is making its mark as a potent tool for traders. In Gaming the Market, economist Ronald B. Shelton provides a model that enables traders to predict profitability and, as a result, make effective buy and sell decisions. Stated simply, game theory is the study of conflict based on a formal approach to decision making that views decisions as choices made in a game. Whether playing individually or in a group, each player in a conflict has more than one course of action available to him, and the outcome of the "game" depends on the interaction of the strategies pursued by each. Shelton offers real-world examples that reveal how the principles of game theory drive financial markets —and how these same principles can be used to develop winning investment strategies. Through Shelton's organized and precise explanations—he uses familiar games such as chess and checkers to illustrate his points —readers gain a solid understanding of the key principles of game theory before applying them to actual financial market situations. Gaming the Market examines the interaction between price fluctuations and risk acceptance levels and gradually constructs a game theory model which proves that there are probability-based formulas for determining the profitability of any given trade. With appendixes on T-Bond futures, mathematical representations of the model, and QuickBasic code for calculating relative frequencies, Gaming the Market provides a thorough overview of the rules and strategies of game theory. This indispensable reference will prove invaluable to novice and seasoned players alike. Are the markets a game? What are the rules? Who are the players? How can you, as a player, come up with a winning strategy? Now, acclaimed economist Ronald B. Shelton shows you how to master the power of game theory in the first trader's guide to this revolutionary approach to investment decisions! "It's not often that a refreshingly new idea appears in the field of trading strategies or risk management, but Ronald B. Shelton has taken pieces from game theory and betting strategies and transformed them into a new, visual way to make trading decisions. . . . He has been able to put a value on trading situations which can increase your ability to manage risk as well as clarify expectations —both essential ingredients for success." —from the Foreword by Perry Kaufman author of The New Commodity Trading Systems and Methods. "Gaming the Market is a very welcome and most useful new guide to playing profitably in the biggest and most complex game ever devised — speculating in the financial markets. Investors and traders who study this book will gain valuable insights into the real nature of the markets and will learn how to play the game to win." —Thomas A. Bierovic, President, Synergy Futures. "Ronald B. Shelton has extended the field of excursion analysis with an innovative and provocative book that is sure to be widely read—and controversial. By examining the actual distributions of price excursion, he shows a technique to estimate your odds going in on a new position, and within the context of game theory, how to evaluate those chances. All traders and analysts seeking objective bases for trading will want to read this book." —John Sweeney, Technical Editor, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine.
The Gartley Trading Method
New Techniques to Profit from the Market's Most Powerful Formation
Hardcover ISBN: 0470583541
"A detailed look at the technical pattern simply referred to today as the Gartley Pattern Gartley patterns are based on the work of H.M. Gartley, a prominent technical analyst best known for a particular retracement pattern that bears his name. In recent years, Gartley patterns-which reflect the underlying psychology of fear and greed in the markets-have received renewed interest. This definitive guide skillfully explains how to utilize the proven methods of H.M. Gartley to capture consistent profits in the financial markets. Page by page, you'll become familiar with Gartley's original work, how his patterns can be adapted to today's fast moving markets, and what it takes to make them work for you. Examines how to identify and profit from the most powerful formation in the financial markets Discusses the similarities, differences and the superiority of the Gartley Pattern compared to classical chart patterns including Elliott Wave shows how to apply filters to Gartley patterns to improve the probability of your trading opportunities, as well as specific rules where to enter and exit positions Gartley's pattern is based on a unique market position where most traders refuse to participate due to fear. This book reveals how you can overcome this fear, and how to profit from the most consistent and reliable pattern in the financial markets."--
Getting Back to Business
Why Modern Portfolio Theory Fails Investors and How You Can Bring Common Sense to Your Portfolio
Hardcover ISBN: 1260135322
Modern Portfolio Theory has failed investors. A change in direction is long overdue. We are in a time of enormous risk. Economic growth is anemic, and political risk to the capital markets is on the rise. In the U.S., a generation of white collar baby-boomers is heading into retirement with insufficient assets in their 401(k) programs, and industrial workers are stuck with materially underfunded pension plans. Against that backdrop, the investing industry