Financial Risk Management With Bayesian Estimation of Garch Models
Theory and Applications
Paperback ISBN: 3540786562
This book presents methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of GARCH models and their application to financial risk management. The study of these models from a Bayesian viewpoint is relatively recent and can be considered very promising due to the advantages of the Bayesian approach, in particular the possibility of obtaining small-sample results and integrating these results in a formal decision model. The first two chapters introduce the work and give an overview of the Bayesian paradigm for inference. The next three chapters describe the estimation of the GARCH model with Normal innovations and the linear regression models with conditionally Normal-GJR and Student-t-GJR errors. The sixth chapter shows how agents facing different risk perspectives can select their optimal Value at Risk Bayesian point estimate and documents that the differences between individuals can be substantial in terms of regulatory capital. The last chapter proposes the estimation of a Markov-switching GJR model.
Finding the Next Starbucks
How to Identify and Invest in the Hot Stocks of Tomorrow
Paperback ISBN: 1591841895
A noted stock profiler counsels market investors on how to identify up-and-coming companies that have lucrative potential, making predictions about such prospective areas as peer-to-peer networking, nanotechnology, and alternative energy. Reprint.
The Inside Story of J.P. Morgan and How Wall Street Greed Corrupted Its Bold Dream and Created a Financial Catastrophe
Paperback ISBN: 1439100136
Traces the relationship between a team of JP Morgan banking gurus and the current financial crisis, documenting their invention of a bold variety of allegedly risk-free investments that sparked a frenzy in the banking world and may have directly contributed to the market crash. By the author of Saving the Sun. Reprint. 60,000 first printing.
Fooled by Randomness
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Hardcover ISBN: 1400067936
The author of The Black Swan argues that randomness and probability have a profound influence on human life, as well as the consistent inability of humans to recognize that role, and explains how to differentiate between randomness in general and the financial markets in particular. 15,000 first printing.
Forex Shockwave Analysis
1st Edition Hardcover ISBN: 0071498141
More than $2 trillion is traded in the foreign exchange every day, and many experts believe this figure will double in the next five years. Fortunately for spot currency traders, the high-volume periods in this market are predictably moved by information released from government and informational agencies, typically on Wednesdays and Fridays at 8:30 a.m. Knowing this gives the Forex trader tremendous analytical advantage, and in Forex Shockwave Analysis, veteran online spot currency trader James Bickford offers reliable techniques and know-how to capitalize on the violent disruptions that happen at these times. When a severe breakout up or down occurs in an otherwise well-behaved time series, it's called a shockwave, and Forex Shockwave Analysis offers unprecedented focus on identifying, analyzing, and categorizing this unique pattern in the foreign exchange market. It not only helps independent investors isolate and recognize recurring shockwave personality traits, but it also gives insight into the reactive phase immediately following the shockwave. Fundamental analysis is covered to provide complete coverage, but playing this market's action can be most highly profitable when the streaming data available today is used to reveal critical properties and characteristics about the underlying currency pair. This book equips you with the four most important methods of technical analysis: - Pattern recognition - Econometric models - Crossover trading systems - Wave theory Forex Shockwave Analysis is packed with practical information for mastering shockwave trading, including a refined minimum reversal algorithm that converts raw security data (OHLC quotes) to swing data, numerous charts and diagnoses based on activity, range, and interaction, as well as fifteen case studies demonstrating how covered material works in the real world. This highly visual book is also outstandingly designed to serve as a computer-side reference that equips you with eleven appendices filled with all the tools you need to gain a distinct advantage while working online in your currency trading platform. Shockwaves occur over the course of a few minutes, and with Forex Shockwave Analysis, you can effectively profit off them for a lifetime.
Free Cash Flow
Seeing Through the Accounting Fog Machine to Find Great Stocks
Hardcover ISBN: 0470391758
The purpose of this book is to explain Free Cash Flow and how to use it to increase investor return. The author explains the differences between Free Cash Flow and GAAP earnings and lays out the disadvantages of GAAP EPS as well as the advantages of Free Cash Flow. After taking the reader step-by-step through the author's Free Cash Flow statement, the book illustrates with formulas how each of the four deployments of Free Cash Flow can enhance or diminish shareholder return. The book applies the conceptual building blocks of Free Cash Flow and investor return to an actual company: McDonald's. The reader is taken line-by-line through the author's investor return spreadsheet model: (1) three years of McDonald's historical financial statements are modeled; (2) a one-year projection of McDonald's Free Cash Flow and investor return is modeled. Five other restaurant companies are compared to McDonald's and each other using both Free Cash Flow and GAAP metrics.